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IPL 2025 Playoff Race Heats Up: RCB Emerges as Strong Contender for Top 2 After Gujarat’s Defeat to Lucknow

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KKN Gurugram Desk  | he league stage of IPL 2025 has entered its most crucial phase. With the Gujarat Titans, Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Punjab Kings, and Mumbai Indians securing their playoff berths, attention now shifts to the battle for the Top 2 positions—a coveted spot offering teams a second chance at reaching the final.

Gujarat’s recent loss to Lucknow Super Giants has shaken up the standings and opened new possibilities for RCB and Punjab. Meanwhile, Mumbai, despite having played one game more, remains in contention under very specific conditions.

Why Top Two Matters in IPL Playoffs

In IPL’s playoff format:

  • Qualifier 1: Played between the top two teams. Winner advances straight to the final.

  • Eliminator: Played between 3rd and 4th ranked teams. The loser is eliminated.

  • Qualifier 2: Loser of Qualifier 1 vs Winner of Eliminator. The winner goes to the final.

Hence, finishing in the top two provides an extra lifeline—a major advantage in a competitive league like the IPL.

Current Standings and Points Table Analysis

As of May 23, 2025, here’s how the IPL 2025 Points Table looks:

Rank Team Matches Wins Losses Points NRR
1 Gujarat Titans (Q) 13 9 4 18 +0.602
2 RCB (Q) 12 8 3 17 +0.482
3 Punjab Kings (Q) 12 8 3 17 +0.389
4 Mumbai Indians (Q) 13 8 5 16 +1.292

Teams like Delhi, Lucknow, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Rajasthan, and Chennai have been eliminated.

Gujarat Titans: Shubman Gill’s Side Slips After LSG Loss

  • Matches Left: 1 (vs CSK on May 25)

  • Max Points Possible: 20

After a dominant run this season, Gujarat Titans faced an unexpected defeat against LSG, pushing them into a vulnerable position. While they are still in the top two, their position is now under threat.

If Gujarat wins against CSK, they finish with 20 points, maintaining a good chance of staying in the top two. But if they lose, and RCB and Punjab win both their remaining matches, Gujarat could drop to 3rd.

Key Watch: Their NRR (+0.602) is decent, but a loss could jeopardize that edge.

RCB: Rajat Patidar’s Team Eyeing Top Finish

  • Matches Left: 2 (vs SRH on May 23, vs LSG on May 27)

  • Max Points Possible: 21

RCB is peaking at the right moment. With strong form and key wins, their path to the top two looks promising.

If RCB wins both matches, they finish at 21 points, potentially topping the table. If they win one, and other results go their way, they might still finish in top two based on Net Run Rate (NRR).

Their NRR (+0.482) is competitive, and form suggests they have the momentum.

Punjab Kings: Relying on Ayyer-Ponting Duo to Deliver

  • Matches Left: 2 (vs DC on May 24, vs MI on May 26)

  • Max Points Possible: 21

Punjab Kings, under the captaincy of Shreyas Iyer and coaching of Ricky Ponting, have had a consistent season. Their playoff berth is secure, but they’re hungry for more.

They need to win both matches to finish in the top two without depending on other teams. A loss in either game complicates their journey significantly, especially if RCB wins out.

Punjab’s NRR (+0.389) is decent, but slightly behind RCB and Gujarat.

Mumbai Indians: Only a Miracle Can Help

  • Matches Left: 1 (vs Punjab Kings on May 26)

  • Max Points Possible: 18

MI has done well to reach the playoffs, but their top-two hopes are slim. Even with a victory in their final game, they would need RCB and Punjab to lose both remaining games and Gujarat to lose their last.

If that rare scenario occurs, MI will finish with 18 points and, thanks to their exceptional NRR (+1.292), could take the top spot.

Scenarios Breakdown for Top 2 Spots

Scenario 1: Gujarat Wins Final Match

  • Gujarat ends with 20 points

  • RCB and Punjab can reach 21

  • Gujarat likely finishes 2nd if one of RCB/Punjab loses a match

Scenario 2: Gujarat Loses, RCB & Punjab Win Both

  • Gujarat ends with 18

  • RCB and Punjab end with 21 each

  • Gujarat drops to 3rd

Scenario 3: RCB or Punjab Lose One Match

  • Gujarat finishes 2nd with 20 points

  • Net Run Rate could decide 2nd spot between tied teams

Scenario 4: Mumbai Wins, Others Lose

  • Gujarat (L), RCB (L x2), Punjab (L x2)

  • Mumbai ends with 18 and best NRR → could finish top

Playoff Schedule 2025

  • Qualifier 1: May 29 – Top 2 teams (Winner to final)

  • Eliminator: May 30 – 3rd vs 4th (Loser out)

  • Qualifier 2: June 1 – Loser of Q1 vs Winner of Eliminator

  • Final: June 3 – Winner of Q1 vs Winner of Q2

Team-by-Team Summary and Outlook

Gujarat Titans:

  • Advantage: Already at 18 points

  • Risk: Depend on other results for top spot

  • Focus: Must beat CSK convincingly

RCB:

  • Advantage: Two games left, good form

  • Risk: One loss may open door for others

  • Focus: Keep winning and boost NRR

Punjab Kings:

  • Advantage: Controlling own destiny

  • Risk: Tough game against MI

  • Focus: Win both and seal top 2

Mumbai Indians:

  • Advantage: Best NRR

  • Risk: Entirely dependent on others’ failure

  • Focus: Beat Punjab and hope

The IPL 2025 playoff scenario is thrilling, with high-stakes encounters lined up before the knockout phase. While Gujarat remains in the driver’s seat, RCB and Punjab have surged into serious contention. Mumbai, despite long odds, is not out of the race.

As the league stage concludes, cricket fans can expect edge-of-the-seat action, where every ball, over, and match could shape the final top-two lineup.

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