India has once again dealt a diplomatic setback to Pakistan. The government has dismissed a so-called ruling by the World Bank-constituted Court of Arbitration, which allegedly stated that India must allow unrestricted flow of western rivers to Pakistan.

According to India, the matter lies outside the court’s jurisdiction. New Delhi maintains that it never recognised this arbitration panel and continues to rely on the neutral expert mechanism under the Indus Waters Treaty.

Pakistan’s Initial Celebration Over the Ruling

Pakistan had been celebrating the recent interpretation from the international court regarding the design parameters for run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers — the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus. Islamabad claimed the decision supported its stance under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

The treaty had been suspended by India after the Pahalgam terror attack, a decision that had already strained bilateral water-sharing arrangements. Pakistan believed the court’s interpretation validated its objections to Indian projects in Jammu and Kashmir.

However, India’s latest response has effectively nullified Pakistan’s optimism.

India Stands Firm Against the Arbitration Court

Indian officials have clarified that New Delhi never recognised the Court of Arbitration in this matter. The court, they say, had no authority to decide on the issue. Instead, India has been focusing on the neutral expert process outlined within the IWT framework.

According to sources, the government views the arbitration path as problematic, especially when the treaty already provides for an expert-based resolution mechanism.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry Statement

On Monday, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that India’s upcoming hydroelectric projects must comply with the treaty’s specified requirements and exceptions. The statement emphasised that the projects should not follow India’s “ideal” or “best practice” standards but remain within the treaty framework.

While Islamabad made its stance public, India has not yet issued an official detailed response to this specific statement. Officials are expected to address it later this week.

India’s Support for Neutral Expert Mechanism

According to a TOI report citing sources, India reminded Pakistan that it had already issued a notification to amend the Indus Waters Treaty amid ongoing disputes over the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir.

The sources noted that India never accepted the World Bank’s earlier decision to activate both a neutral expert mechanism and the Court of Arbitration simultaneously for the same dispute. This dual process was initiated following Pakistan’s request, but India objected to it from the outset.

This, officials say, is why India has called for a review of the treaty’s dispute resolution process.

October 2022: The Trigger Point

In October 2022, the World Bank appointed both a neutral expert and an arbitration court, despite India’s concerns. New Delhi had argued that conducting two parallel proceedings on the same matter would create legal and procedural complications.

The World Bank acknowledged India’s apprehensions but went ahead with the appointments. This decision deepened the differences between the two neighbours on treaty interpretation and dispute resolution.

The Broader Diplomatic Context

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, allocates control over the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — to India, and the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — to Pakistan. While India can use the western rivers for limited purposes such as run-of-the-river hydro projects, the treaty restricts storage and diversion.

Disputes have often arisen over the technical design of Indian projects on the western rivers. Pakistan claims some of these violate treaty provisions, while India maintains they are within the agreed parameters.

Terrorism Link and Treaty Suspension

India suspended its engagement under the IWT after the Pahalgam terror attack, holding Pakistan responsible for cross-border terrorism. Officials have reiterated that until Islamabad takes credible action against terror groups, the treaty will remain on hold.

According to government sources, water cooperation cannot be separated from broader bilateral relations, especially when security concerns are involved.

Pakistan’s Renewed Push for Treaty Implementation

Following the recent international court decision, Pakistan once again urged India to implement the treaty in full. Islamabad framed the ruling as a victory for its legal position.

However, India’s firm dismissal of the arbitration court’s authority has frustrated Pakistan’s efforts. Analysts say Islamabad may now focus on garnering international support to pressure India, though such attempts have had limited success in the past.

Legal and Strategic Implications

Experts point out that India’s rejection of the court’s jurisdiction is consistent with its long-standing position. Accepting the ruling would have set a precedent that could weaken India’s negotiating power in future water disputes.

Strategically, New Delhi’s stance signals that it will not allow external arbitration bodies to dictate terms outside mutually agreed frameworks. This approach aligns with India’s broader emphasis on sovereignty and treaty-defined processes.

Future of the Indus Waters Treaty

The ongoing dispute raises questions about the treaty’s long-term viability. While it has survived multiple wars between India and Pakistan, recent political and security tensions have strained its implementation.

India’s push for revising the dispute resolution mechanism suggests that changes to the treaty could be on the horizon. This would require mutual consent, which appears unlikely in the current climate.

By rejecting the arbitration court’s ruling, India has reaffirmed its position that the Indus Waters Treaty must operate strictly within its original framework. The emphasis on the neutral expert process, coupled with the suspension of treaty engagement over terrorism concerns, leaves little room for compromise in the near future.

For Pakistan, the setback underscores the challenge of leveraging international legal forums against India in disputes rooted in sensitive security and sovereignty issues. The water-sharing arrangement, once hailed as a model of cooperation, now faces one of its most serious tests in decades.