KKN Gurugram Desk | As the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections approach, both the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) and Mahagathbandhan are in the midst of intense discussions regarding seat sharing. This time, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by Chirag Paswan, has joined the NDA, altering the dynamics and making seat-sharing negotiations more complex. With LJP demanding a significant share of the seats, including 40 seats, the alliance between BJP and JDU could face challenges in finalizing seat allocations. Additionally, Jitan Ram Manjhi, leader of HAM, has staked a claim for at least 25 seats.
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Changing Dynamics in Bihar Politics: Seat Sharing Challenges for NDA
The Bihar Assembly elections 2025 are just around the corner, and political parties are preparing for a tough battle. The NDA and Mahagathbandhan are actively negotiating seat-sharing arrangements, with each side looking to maximize their influence and secure a stronghold in the state. However, with LJP (Paswan) now part of the NDA, the equation has shifted significantly. In the 2020 elections, LJP contested separately, but this time, under the NDA banner, the party is vying for 40 seats, which complicates the seat-sharing arrangement within the alliance.
Bihar Assembly Election 2020: A Glimpse at the Previous Seat Share
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA had a different composition. The BJP contested 110 seats, winning 74, while JDU contested 115 seats, securing 43. The Hams party contested 7 seats, winning 4, and VIP contested 11 seats, securing 4. LJP, led by Chirag Paswan, chose to fight the elections separately, fielding candidates in 134 seats but winning only 1 seat. Despite the loss, LJP’s involvement in the 2020 elections led to a loss for JDU in several seats. With LJP joining the NDA now, it is expected to change the seat distribution in a way that could affect BJP and JDU.
The Shift in NDA’s Composition for 2025 Elections
For the upcoming 2025 elections, the NDA’s structure has changed. The VIP, previously a part of the NDA, is now a member of the Mahagathbandhan, and LJP (Paswan) has joined hands with the NDA. This shift in alliances is bound to impact the seat-sharing arrangement between BJP and JDU, and both parties are likely to see a reduction in the number of seats they will contest. BJP leaders have indicated informally that the party will aim to contest at least 100 seats, which means that JDU will likely have fewer seats than it contested previously.
Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Claim for Seats
One of the key figures in the Mahagathbandhan is Jitan Ram Manjhi, the leader of the HAM (Hindustani Awam Morcha). Manjhi has staked a claim for at least 25 seats, though it is widely acknowledged that he is unlikely to get such a large share. However, his demand is seen as a strategic move to safeguard his party’s interests and prevent a reduction in his share of seats. Manjhi’s efforts are aimed at ensuring his party retains its influence within the Mahagathbandhan.
In informal discussions, LJP’s leaders have expressed that BJP and LJP should aim to contest more than 135-140 seats together to ensure a stable government. Such negotiations are ongoing, and the final decisions will likely depend on the consensus reached within the NDA.
Seat Distribution in NDA: Complexities Arise
The seat-sharing issue within the NDA is becoming increasingly complex due to the inclusion of LJP (Paswan). In the past, VIP had been a part of the NDA, but it is now a member of the Mahagathbandhan. There have been growing rumors about the possibility of VIP rejoining the NDA, especially after comments from BJP state president Dilip Jaiswal. Although Mukesh Sahni, leader of VIP, has denied these rumors, political dynamics in Bihar are always unpredictable, and leaders frequently switch alliances.
In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, VIP had formed an alliance with the RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal). If VIP returns to the NDA, it could lead to a further intensification of seat-sharing negotiations and disagreements. As a member of the Mahagathbandhan, VIP’s return to the NDA could disrupt the existing seat distribution and cause friction between the parties.
The Role of Smaller Parties in Seat Distribution
While the major parties like BJP, JDU, and LJP are the primary players in Bihar’s political scenario, the smaller parties and their seat-sharing demands also play a crucial role. Mahagathbandhan includes a variety of smaller parties, each of which is looking to secure its stake in the upcoming election. These parties often hold significant bargaining power in seat-sharing discussions.
The role of these smaller parties will be crucial in the lead-up to the elections, as they could act as kingmakers, especially if the larger parties are unable to secure a clear majority. Nitish Kumar’s JDU and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD will need to balance their seat-sharing agreements with the demands of these smaller allies to maintain unity within the Mahagathbandhan. Similarly, in the NDA, Chirag Paswan’s LJP is positioning itself to secure a fair share of seats to enhance its influence.
Political Tensions and Strategies
The Bihar Assembly elections 2025 are expected to be highly competitive, with political tensions mounting between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan. Both alliances are engaged in strategic maneuvers to solidify their positions and appeal to voters across Bihar. As the election date approaches, the focus will shift from seat-sharing to campaigning and galvanizing support for the respective parties.
BJP and JDU, despite their alliance in the NDA, face challenges in maintaining harmony within their ranks, especially with the addition of LJP to the coalition. The ongoing discussions regarding the allocation of seats are expected to be critical in shaping the future of Bihar politics.
On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan will focus on leveraging its unity and highlighting the past achievements of its leaders in order to counter the narrative pushed by the NDA. The influence of Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, and other prominent figures will be key in mobilizing support for the coalition.
The Importance of the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025
The Bihar Assembly elections 2025 are significant for several reasons. The outcome of these elections will determine the political future of Bihar, a state that has long been a battleground for regional and national politics. The NDA and Mahagathbandhan will not only be fighting for power but will also be shaping the political landscape of Bihar for years to come.
The seat-sharing negotiations within both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan will have far-reaching consequences, as the success or failure of these alliances could either pave the way for a dominant political force or lead to fragmentation. As the political scene heats up, the voters of Bihar will be watching closely, waiting to see which alliance can provide the best vision for the state’s future.
With the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 approaching, the seat-sharing battles within both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan are becoming more intense. The NDA’s seat-sharing formula has become more complex with LJP’s inclusion, while the Mahagathbandhan is focused on maintaining unity among its diverse members.
As the political parties in Bihar gear up for the elections, the final seat allocations will play a crucial role in determining which alliance has the upper hand. The elections will not only be a test of political strength but also of the ability to manage internal differences and form a united front. The outcome will shape the future of Bihar and could have significant implications for national politics as well.
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