KKN Gurugram Desk | While India continues to navigate tensions with Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack, the political landscape in Bihar is heating up for the upcoming Assembly elections. Both major alliances — the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) — have started outlining their seat-sharing formulas, despite the ongoing geopolitical crisis.

Backdoor meetings, alliance negotiations, and power equations are dominating Bihar politics as every party is vying for a larger piece of the electoral pie.

NDA Finalizes Internal Seat-Sharing Formula

According to inside sources, the NDA has almost finalized its seat distribution formula for the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly.

Key Points:

• The main division will occur between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)].

• The division is expected to be nearly equal, with one seat potentially tipping the “big brother” status between BJP and JD(U).

• Smaller NDA allies, including Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM, will be accommodated from JD(U)’s share.

• Upendra Kushwaha has reportedly demanded 15 seats, while Manjhi seeks up to 40, though both are likely to receive around 10 seats each.

Recent meetings between Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Kushwaha further confirmed these ongoing negotiations.

BJP to Handle Chirag Paswan Separately

Another critical piece of the NDA puzzle is Chirag Paswan, president of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Union Minister. BJP’s Vinod Tawde, in charge of Bihar affairs, met with Paswan at his Delhi residence to negotiate seat allocations.

Background:

• In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Chirag fielded candidates against JD(U) while sparing BJP, resulting in major losses for Nitish Kumar.

• LJP’s performance significantly impacted JD(U), causing them to lose nearly three dozen seats.

• Following internal splits, Chirag remains LJP(R)’s sole MP, while the majority of the party’s MPs joined the Pashupati Kumar Paras faction.

Given past experiences, Nitish has distanced himself from direct negotiations with Chirag and handed the responsibility to BJP. Party sources suggest BJP will try to accommodate Chirag with around 10–15 seats, no more.

Mahagathbandhan (MGB) Also Working on Seat Allocation

The Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) — led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) — is also in advanced discussions over seat distribution. Coordination committee meetings are happening at regular intervals.

Key Highlights of MGB’s Strategy:

• RJD plans to contest at least 150 seats, up from 144 in 2020.

• Congress is expected to receive fewer than 50 seats, a significant reduction.

• VIP (Vikassheel Insaan Party), contesting its first Assembly election as part of the alliance, is demanding 60 seats, though RJD is willing to offer only 12–15 seats.

• CPI (ML), which contested 19 seats and won 12 in 2020, will likely get more seats this time.

This strategy heavily relies on cutting Congress’s share, which has so far resisted such terms, especially given its ambitions for the Chief Minister’s face.

Why Congress Is Losing Ground in MGB

The Congress’s demand for more seats and a CM face has not resonated well with other MGB partners. RJD, being the dominant force, is unwilling to concede ground. The alliance is prioritizing winnability and performance, and Congress’s previous electoral underperformance works against it.

Unless Congress adjusts expectations, internal friction may rise, potentially benefiting the NDA.

Impact of National Tensions on Bihar Politics

The recent Pahalgam terrorist attack and the Indian military’s retaliatory response against Pakistan have shifted the national mood. Political analysts suggest:

• NDA may capitalize on nationalist sentiment, projecting strong leadership under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

• MGB might attempt to critique the ceasefire deal brokered by the US, arguing that public sentiment was overlooked.

• While foreign policy is not a state subject, emotional resonance with voters often influences local outcomes.

PM Modi’s Focus on Bihar: NDA’s Strategic Advantage

With national security back on the agenda, PM Narendra Modi is reportedly prioritizing Bihar as part of BJP’s eastern strategy.

Why Bihar Matters:

• Large number of migrant workers and youth voters.

• Caste-based equations, which have historically favored both alliances at different times.

• Past experience shows PM Modi’s popularity often trumps local discontent.

Expect multiple Modi rallies, targeted campaigns, and central project inaugurations as the election nears.

Internal Dynamics: MGB vs NDA

Possible Seat-Sharing Scenario (Predicted)

While cross-border tensions with Pakistan dominate national discourse, Bihar’s political battleground is intensely active behind the scenes. From alliance dynamics to candidate negotiations, every move is being calculated for maximum impact.

The final seat-sharing announcements from both NDA and MGB are expected soon. Until then, every handshake, meeting, and press statement will be watched closely.