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India has made it clear that it will not stop buying crude oil from Russia. This decision comes after US President Donald Trump announced heavy sanctions on India over Russian oil imports. Indian officials and energy experts believe the sanctions, if enforced, will damage the US economy more than India. According to analysts, the crude oil market is highly interconnected. Any disruption in Russian oil flow could push global prices higher. If India is forced to cut oil imports from Russia, it would tighten supply globally. That, in turn, would lead to inflation not only in India but also in the US. India Imports Nearly 40% of Its Crude Oil From Russia India currently imports between 33% to 40% of its crude oil requirements from Russia. In May 2025, India purchased 1.96 million barrels per day from Russia. This made up nearly 38% of the country’s total crude oil imports. India is the world’s third-largest oil importer, after the United States and China. Russia, on the other hand, exports around 5 million barrels of crude oil daily. A sudden drop in demand from India could disrupt Russian oil revenues. However, experts argue that replacing Russian oil quickly would be extremely difficult for India. Crude Oil Price Surge Likely if Supply Is Disrupted Energy expert Narendra Taneja stated that if sanctions force India to reduce Russian oil imports, crude prices will rise. Taneja explained that higher global oil prices will affect the US as much as India. Since the US is the world’s second-largest oil importer, any price spike will drive inflation in America. Other energy analysts agree that cutting off Russian oil is not a simple decision. Every country, including India, considers its energy security before taking geopolitical stands. If Russian supply is disrupted, the price of crude oil could rise to $100 or even $120 per barrel. Such an increase would raise fuel costs, push up inflation, and stress global supply chains. Petroleum companies across countries, including those in India, will face pressure to absorb costs. However, in a volatile market, long-term sustainability may require them to pass some of the cost to consumers. India Has Multiple Sources for Oil Imports India buys crude oil from more than 36 countries. This gives the country some cushion in times of geopolitical tensions. Even if Russian supplies are restricted, India can shift imports to other suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. However, this is not a cost-free shift. A sudden increase in demand for oil from non-Russian suppliers will raise prices in the international market. Indian petroleum companies could face higher procurement costs, tightening profit margins and possibly affecting consumer fuel prices. Still, government officials believe that India’s current energy strategy provides enough flexibility to manage such risks. India has long focused on diversifying its oil import portfolio to avoid dependence on a single country. Russia Offers India Discounted Oil Amid Sanctions Since February 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war began, India has been purchasing discounted oil from Russia. Many Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, which reduced global demand for Russian oil. India seized the opportunity to buy cheaper oil and increase its energy reserves. These purchases helped India manage domestic inflation and reduce its import bills. Despite international pressure, India has consistently stated that it will act in its national interest. As a result, Russia has remained one of India’s top crude oil suppliers for the last three years. India’s Oil Trade With Russia Unlikely to Stop Suddenly Despite President Trump's recent claims, Indian government officials insist that oil imports from Russia will continue. Sources said that long-term agreements with Russian suppliers make an immediate halt to imports impossible. Trump, during a media interaction, said he had heard India stopped buying Russian oil. He also called it a "good decision," but admitted he lacked full details. In response, Indian sources clarified that no such decision had been taken. Indian oil companies have not received any directive to reduce or stop Russian imports. According to a report by The New York Times, quoting two Indian officials, there has been no policy change. India remains committed to its existing oil procurement agreements with Russia. Strategic Energy Partnerships Drive India’s Policy India’s approach to energy procurement is based on securing stable and affordable supplies. Government policy is shaped by practical needs rather than geopolitical alignments. Experts argue that targeting India over Russian oil trade is counterproductive. India’s foreign policy also emphasizes strategic autonomy. Energy partnerships are part of a broader plan to ensure uninterrupted growth. Any pressure to disrupt oil supply chains would challenge India's economic stability. Moreover, sanctions on Indian oil imports from Russia could trigger retaliatory measures. Such a move might impact diplomatic and trade relations between the US and India, which are already sensitive. Why Sanctioning India Could Backfire for the US The US economy is sensitive to oil price changes. If global crude prices rise due to reduced Russian exports, American consumers will feel the impact. Gasoline prices could rise sharply, affecting transportation and logistics. Inflation could rise further, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Economic instability in the US, especially in an election year, could harm political support for the administration. Sanctioning India for oil trade may also send negative signals to other strategic partners. Several American economists have warned that isolating India could weaken US influence in Asia. India is viewed as a counterbalance to China, and alienating it could damage long-term geopolitical interests. India has clearly communicated that it will continue purchasing oil from Russia. Long-term contracts, discounted rates, and energy security concerns guide this decision. President Trump’s statements have not changed India’s energy policy. Officials have confirmed there is no government order to stop Russian oil imports. Indian petroleum companies remain free to buy from suppliers that meet price and quality benchmarks. Global markets may react to rising tension, but India will prioritize stability and affordability. The broader impact of any disruption in oil trade will be felt globally. As of now, India stands firm on its independent energy policy. The government will continue to navigate international pressure without compromising on national interest.

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