India’s Population Growth Rate Falls Below ‘Two-Child Policy’ Level

India’s population growth has slowed to a level even lower than the once-popular ‘Hum Do Hamare Do’ policy. According to the World Bank, the country’s birth rate now stands at 1.98, below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1. This marks a significant shift in India’s demographic pattern, with growing numbers of families choosing to have only one child or none at all.

From Population Boom to Decline in Birth Rates

Just a few decades ago, India’s rapidly increasing population was considered a pressing challenge. The country, which has now overtaken all others to become the most populous in the world, is witnessing an unexpected slowdown in population growth.

The World Bank’s 2023 data highlights this shift, revealing that India’s birth rate has dipped below the level needed to maintain a stable population over generations.

Replacement Level and Its Significance

A replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is generally required for a population to replace itself without migration. This accounts for child mortality and other factors. India’s current rate of 1.98 means that, over time, the natural growth of the population will slow and could eventually lead to a decline.

Changing Family Trends in India

The number of Indian families with only one child, or no children at all, has been rising rapidly. This shift is influenced by factors such as urbanisation, career priorities, financial constraints, and lifestyle choices. As living costs increase in cities, many couples are reconsidering traditional family sizes.

Social attitudes have also evolved, with some households choosing to remain child-free by preference.

Global Comparison: Countries Facing Lower Birth Rates

Several countries already face much lower fertility rates than India’s current 1.98. In nations like South Korea, Japan, and parts of Europe, birth rates are so low that population decline is becoming a serious economic and social concern. India’s new trajectory suggests it could face similar challenges in the coming decades if the trend continues.

Long-Term Implications for India

While slower population growth can ease pressure on resources, it also brings potential long-term challenges. A declining birth rate can lead to an ageing population, a shrinking workforce, and higher dependency ratios. This could strain social welfare systems and affect economic growth unless balanced by migration or increased productivity.

India’s birth rate falling below the replacement level marks a historic demographic turning point. With the World Bank data showing 1.98 births per woman, the nation is entering a phase where population stability is no longer guaranteed. How India adapts to this demographic shift — through policy, social change, and economic planning — will determine the impact on its future growth and development.