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Indus Water Treaty deadlock: Pakistan calls for fresh talks

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KKN Gurugram Desk | Following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan has once again reached out to India seeking the resumption of dialogue. This development comes even as India is accelerating plans to build a strategic canal system that could divert a significant portion of water from the Indus River System to multiple Indian states.

According to high-level sources cited in recent reports, India is no longer inclined to engage in bilateral talks with Pakistan on the treaty and is focusing instead on infrastructure measures to optimize its water rights under the IWT.

Background: India Suspends Indus Water Treaty Post-Pahalgam Attack

In response to persistent cross-border terrorism, particularly the Pahalgam attack, India chose to suspend cooperation under the Indus Waters Treaty, a move that has sparked repeated outreach from Pakistan. According to diplomatic and government insiders, Pakistan has sent multiple formal letters requesting to restart discussions around the treaty, particularly focusing on the clauses India has objected to.

Sources claim that the first formal letter was received in response to India’s earlier notice in January 2023, and since the suspension, two more communications have been received, routed through India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

Despite these efforts, New Delhi remains firm—there is no interest in reactivating the treaty or discussing its terms at this stage.

India’s Strategic Shift: From Diplomacy to Water Infrastructure

While diplomatic talks remain off the table, India is rapidly moving forward with a large-scale canal development project designed to redirect water from the Indus Basin to Indian states—a shift that underscores New Delhi’s evolving stance from negotiation to resource optimization.

According to senior officials quoted in the media:

  • A two-phase canal system is being developed.

  • Phase one includes a 130-kilometer canal from the Beas River to Sri Ganganagar in Rajasthan.

  • Phase two involves an additional 70-kilometer stretch that will connect the canal to the Yamuna River.

Once completed, this system will provide sustainable water access to Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Delhi.

Execution Timeline: Faster Than Planned

Though the official timeline for completion of Phase 1 is three years, authorities are optimistic about completing it in two years, with water diversion likely to begin in 2.5 years. This acceleration highlights India’s intent to maximize its water utilization rights under the IWT, particularly the eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, Sutlej), which are fully allocated to India.

Pakistan’s Concerns: Potential Water Scarcity and Agricultural Impact

Pakistan’s desperation for renewed dialogue stems largely from the fear that any reduction in water flow from India could have devastating consequences for its Rabi (winter) crops.

According to experts:

  • A one-month water shortage during the Rabi season could result in crop failure.

  • It could also significantly impact drinking water supplies in Pakistan’s northern regions.

Interestingly, Pakistan’s Kharif (summer) crops are less vulnerable as they coincide with monsoon rains, but the winter season is heavily dependent on consistent river flow from India.

Reservoir Upgrades: India Begins Desilting Operations

Post-suspension of the IWT, India has resumed desilting and flushing operations at its hydroelectric reservoirs—a process that had earlier faced objections from Pakistan.

Notable developments include:

  • First-ever flushing exercises at the Salal (690 MW) and Baglihar (900 MW) hydroelectric projects.

  • Around 7.5 million cubic meters of silt and sediment have been cleared.

These actions, long resisted by Pakistan under treaty technicalities, are now being carried out without consultation—a direct result of the treaty’s indefinite suspension.

Why This Matters: Strategic Implications of India’s Canal Network

1. Strengthening Water Security for Indian States

The canal project is expected to:

  • Improve irrigation facilities in water-deficient regions of Rajasthan and Haryana

  • Boost agricultural output

  • Reduce Delhi’s water dependency on external sources

2. Creating Leverage in India-Pakistan Relations

By enhancing domestic water management and optimizing treaty provisions, India is:

  • Increasing strategic pressure on Pakistan

  • Shifting the balance of control over water resources in the region

3. Environmental and Regional Rebalancing

The canal, if connected to the Yamuna, could also aid in:

  • Replenishing river basins

  • Flood control

  • Supporting aquifer recharge in drought-prone zones

Pakistan’s Diplomatic Approach: Too Late, Too Little?

Despite its renewed outreach, Pakistan’s sudden eagerness to negotiate the treaty’s terms comes after years of diplomatic inertia. India had already issued two formal notices (2023 and 2024) requesting a review and renegotiation of treaty provisions, both of which went largely unanswered by Islamabad at the time.

Now, post-treaty suspension, Pakistan is pushing for:

  • Clause-level review of objectionable terms

  • Restoration of joint mechanisms for water management

  • A neutral venue for talks (potentially via third-party mediation)

As per reports, these letters have not only been shared with India’s MEA but are also being informally circulated among international stakeholders, including the United Nations.

Expert View: What Lies Ahead for the Indus Water Treaty?

According to water and strategic affairs analysts:

“India is well within its rights to utilize the eastern rivers under the IWT. The western rivers, though allocated to Pakistan, are still governed by Indian projects with certain permissible uses. The shift to unilateral infrastructure development indicates a long-term repositioning in India’s river diplomacy.”

The treaty, signed in 1960, is increasingly being viewed in India as outdated and imbalanced, especially in the context of repeated security threats and the evolution of modern hydrological needs.

Timeline Recap: Key Events in the Indus Waters Dispute

Date Event
Jan 2023 India sends first notice seeking IWT review
Sept 2024 Second notice sent; no response from Pakistan
Feb 2025 Pahalgam terror attack
Mar 2025 India suspends cooperation under IWT
May 2025 Pakistan sends letters seeking dialogue
June 2025 India begins flushing Salal and Baglihar dams

As India advances its water diversion strategy and ignores Pakistan’s appeals for resumption of talks, the Indus Water Treaty appears to be entering an era of strategic recalibration.

For India, the priority is now resource utilization, water security, and self-reliance, not diplomacy constrained by outdated treaties. Whether Pakistan can regain India’s trust—or whether the treaty will eventually collapse—remains to be seen.

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