KKN Gurugram Desk | The Delhi Assembly Election 2025 exit polls predict a significant victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), marking its return to power in the national capital after 27 years. Most pollsters suggest that BJP will secure nearly 50 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may struggle to cross 30 seats. The Congress party is expected to remain a marginal player, with projections indicating that it might not cross three seats.
The voting for the Delhi elections was held on February 5, 2025, and the official results will be announced on February 8, 2025. However, the exit poll predictions indicate a clear shift in voter sentiment, suggesting that the BJP is set to end AAP’s dominance in the city.
Exit Poll Results: BJP Leads, AAP Lags Behind
Several polling agencies conducted surveys and predicted the seat distribution for BJP, AAP, and Congress in the Delhi Assembly Election 2025. Here is what the exit polls suggest:
| Exit Polling Agency | BJP (Likely Seats) | AAP (Likely Seats) | Congress (Likely Seats) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chanakya Strategies | 39-44 | 25-28 | 2-3 |
| Matrize | 35-40 | 32-37 | 0-1 |
| P-Marq | 39-44 | 21-31 | 0-1 |
| People’s Pulse | 51-60 | 10-18 | 0-1 |
| People’s Insight | 40-44 | 25-28 | 0-1 |
| Poll Diary | 42-50 | 18-25 | 0-2 |
| JVC | 39-45 | 22-31 | 0-2 |
While some polls predict a comfortable majority for BJP, others suggest a closer fight with AAP. However, the trend clearly indicates that BJP is leading, while AAP’s influence is waning compared to its previous performances.
Scuffle Between AAP and BJP Workers in Sangam Vihar
A political clash broke out between BJP and AAP workers in the Sangam Vihar constituency late on election day. Both parties accused each other of violence and misbehavior.
- AAP MLA Dinesh Mohaniya alleged that BJP workers attacked his team and threw a stick at one of his workers.
- On the other hand, BJP candidate Chandan Kumar Chaudhary claimed that AAP workers attacked his campaign office and injured seven BJP supporters.
The Delhi Police has confirmed that no official complaint has been filed yet, and the incident is under investigation.
Exit Polls in Previous Delhi Elections: Accuracy and Trends
Exit polls have had a mixed track record in predicting Delhi Assembly Elections in the past. Here’s how they performed in previous elections:
- 2013 Elections:
- Exit polls correctly predicted a hung assembly but underestimated AAP’s strength.
- AAP won 28 seats, while BJP secured 31 seats.
- 2015 Elections:
- Polls estimated that AAP would win 45 seats, but the party won 67 seats, securing a massive majority.
- BJP was projected to win around 20 seats but managed to secure only three.
- 2020 Elections:
- Exit polls improved in accuracy, predicting AAP’s win with 54-68 seats.
- The final results saw AAP winning 62 seats and BJP getting eight seats.
Despite the history of exit polls underestimating AAP’s performance, the 2025 projections suggest a major shift in voter preference, possibly paving the way for a BJP government in Delhi.
Reactions from Political Leaders on Exit Polls
AAP Leaders Remain Confident Despite Projections
AAP leaders have dismissed the exit poll results, stating that the final outcome on February 8 will prove them wrong.
- AAP Spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar: “Exit polls have always been wrong about AAP. We have formed the government every time, and this year will be no different.”
- AAP Leader Somnath Bharti: “These are managed affairs. In 2020, the results were completely opposite of the predictions.”
BJP Optimistic About Victory
BJP leaders are confident that the final results will reflect an even better outcome than what the exit polls suggest.
- BJP MP Manoj Tiwari: “The people of Delhi have decided. BJP is making a strong comeback, and the actual results will be even better than these predictions.”
- BJP Candidate from Vikaspuri, Dr. Pankaj Kumar: “The people of Delhi are tired of AAP’s false promises. BJP will bring real development.”
Congress Reaction: Let’s Wait for Final Results
Congress, which is projected to win a negligible number of seats, has taken a cautious approach.
- Congress Candidate Sandeep Dikshit: “Let’s wait for the final results on February 8. We fought well.”
Final Voter Turnout in Delhi Assembly Elections 2025
The Election Commission of India reported a voter turnout of 60.42% in the Delhi elections. Among the 11 districts, the highest turnout was recorded in North-East Delhi (66.25%), while South-East Delhi had the lowest at 56.16%.
First-Time Voters and Their Concerns
This election saw over 52,000 first-time voters, most of whom are concerned about:
- Cleanliness, education, and job opportunities.
- Women’s safety and security in public spaces.
- Pollution and the need for improved public transport.
Young voters have played a crucial role in shaping the outcome of previous elections, and their participation could impact AAP’s and BJP’s performance in key constituencies.
AAP’s Strategy to Retain Muslim Votes in 2025
AAP has historically relied on the Muslim voter base in several constituencies. However, with Congress, AIMIM, and other parties contesting aggressively, a division of Muslim votes could benefit BJP.
To counter this, AAP fielded five Muslim candidates in constituencies like Matia Mahal and Okhla. The party has also introduced new faces in certain areas to overcome anti-incumbency sentiments.
Meanwhile, Congress increased its Muslim representation from five candidates in 2020 to 32 in 2025. This move aims to regain lost support from the community, which could further challenge AAP’s dominance.
BJP’s Strategy and Challenges in Delhi Elections 2025
BJP has focused on middle-class concerns, promising to continue welfare schemes if elected.
Hits of BJP’s Strategy
- Addressing welfare concerns similar to AAP’s schemes.
- Promoting development and infrastructure projects.
- Highlighting dissatisfaction with AAP’s governance.
Misses of BJP’s Strategy
- Lack of a strong local face to counter Arvind Kejriwal.
- Challenges in securing votes from lower-income groups, who have benefited from AAP’s schemes.
With only a few days left for the final election results on February 8, all eyes are on the Election Commission of India. If exit polls hold true, BJP will form the government in Delhi after nearly three decades. However, AAP continues to believe that it will defy the predictions, just like in previous elections.
As the political battle intensifies, the final outcome will determine the future leadership of Delhi for the next five years.
