The electoral process in Bihar has concluded, and all eyes are now on November 14, when the vote counting will take place. The counting of votes will begin at 8 AM across 46 centers in the state. Following the completion of voting in both phases, the exit polls have started to roll in, revealing varying predictions about the outcome of the elections. Some exit polls suggest a clear majority for the NDA (National Democratic Alliance), while others indicate a close contest. One of the prominent survey agencies, Axis My India, has released its exit poll, which has made significant predictions. This exit poll seems to give a major blow to Tejashwi Yadav while signaling the potential return of the NDA government in Bihar.

NDA vs. Mahagathbandhan: Who Will Prevail?

According to the Axis My India survey, the NDA is projected to receive a 43% vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to secure 41% of the vote share. The Jan Suraj Party (JSP) is anticipated to get 4% of the vote share, while other parties are expected to secure 12%. In terms of seat distribution, the NDA is projected to win between 121 to 141 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure 98 to 118 seats. With a total of 243 seats in the Bihar Legislative Assembly, the majority mark stands at 122, and the exit poll indicates that the NDA is likely to reach this threshold with ease.

NDA’s Path to Majority

In the exit poll predictions, the NDA is expected to secure between 121 and 141 seats. A majority in the Bihar Assembly requires any coalition to win at least 122 seats. If the NDA secures 121 seats, it will not be able to form a majority government. However, if the NDA crosses the 121-seat mark, it will form the government with a clear majority. Axis My India’s exit poll predicts that out of the 101 seats contested by the BJP, it could win between 50 to 60 seats. In the case of JDU, which contested 101 seats, it could win between 56 to 62 seats. The LJP (R) contested 28 seats and is expected to win 11 to 16 of them. The HAM (Hindustani Awam Morcha) contested 6 seats, and it is expected to win 2 to 3 seats, while RLJP (Rashtriya Lok Janata Party) is predicted to win 2 to 4 seats.

Mahagathbandhan’s Close Fight

The Mahagathbandhan, according to the Axis My India exit poll, is projected to secure between 98 and 118 seats. Within this alliance, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is expected to win between 67 to 76 seats, while the Congress may secure between 17 and 21 seats. The Left Front is projected to win between 10 and 14 seats, and the VIP (Vikas Insaan Party) may secure between 3 and 5 seats. Based on these predictions, RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, could emerge as the largest party in Bihar once again. The JD(U), on the other hand, seems to be regaining its lost popularity. Axis My India’s survey predicts that the Jan Suraj Party, led by Prashant Kishor, will secure 0 to 2 seats, while the AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen) is expected to win 0 to 2 seats. Other smaller parties are expected to secure 0 to 5 seats.

Regional Predictions: Where Will the Votes Go?

According to the exit poll, the Chhapar region with 21 seats will see the NDA leading in 12 of them, while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to lead in 9. In the Seemanchal area, the Mahagathbandhan is predicted to win 15 seats, while the NDA will secure only 8, and the Jan Suraj Party is expected to win one seat. In this region, the NDA is expected to secure around 37% of the votes, while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to get about 52% of the vote share. The Kosi region is expected to witness a tight contest, with the NDA expected to win 16 seats and the Mahagathbandhan expected to secure 15. In this region, the NDA and Mahagathbandhan are predicted to get 43% and 42% of the votes, respectively.

Caste Dynamics and Voting Trends

The Axis My India survey highlights the importance of caste dynamics in the election. It predicts that the Mahagathbandhan is likely to get 90% of the votes from the Yadav community and 79% from the Muslim community. On the other hand, the NDA is expected to receive support from the upper and middle classes, as well as urban voters. Among first-time voters (aged 18-19), the Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure 46% of the vote, while the NDA is predicted to receive 37%. However, as the age group increases, the NDA’s support base strengthens. Among voters aged 30 to 39, the NDA is expected to secure 43%, while the Mahagathbandhan will get 42%. For voters aged 50 and above, the NDA is predicted to win between 49% to 51% of the vote share.

Impact of Jan Suraj Party

Though the Jan Suraj Party’s projected 4% vote share might seem relatively small, it could play a decisive role in several constituencies. Analysts suggest that most of Jan Suraj’s supporters are former NDA voters, and their shift away from the NDA could cost the alliance approximately 3% of the vote share. This could make a significant difference in close constituencies, potentially altering the results. In rural and Seemanchal areas, the Mahagathbandhan is leading, while in urban and middle-income areas, the NDA has a strong foothold. The influence of Jan Suraj Party is particularly visible in these demographics.

The exit polls for Bihar’s 2025 elections present an interesting and close contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. While the NDA seems to have an edge in terms of vote share and seat projections, the Mahagathbandhan is not far behind, making this election a nail-biting finish. The regional vote shares, combined with caste dynamics and the influence of smaller parties like Jan Suraj, could significantly impact the final results. As the election countdown continues, all eyes are now set on the vote counting process scheduled for November 14, 2025, which will ultimately decide the fate of Bihar’s next government.