Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Four Key Obstacles in the Path of Chirag Paswan and Nitish Kumar

KKN Gurugram Desk | As Bihar gears up for the much-anticipated 2025 Assembly Elections, the political atmosphere in the state is heating up. With just months to go before voters hit the booths, all major parties are scrambling to establish their dominance. However, what’s more intriguing is the internal tussle within alliances and parties, particularly between Chirag Paswan, Nitish Kumar, and the BJP’s internal power centers.

The battle is not just for seats—it’s for supremacy, narrative control, and ultimately, the Chief Ministerial face.

1. The Chirag vs Nitish Conflict: Legacy vs Experience

The most glaring friction in Bihar politics today is between Chirag Paswan, the Union Minister and LJP (Ram Vilas) leader, and Nitish Kumar, the current Chief Minister and leader of JD(U). Both leaders claim to be the rightful face of the NDA alliance in Bihar.

While Nitish Kumar brings administrative experience and grassroots organizational machinery, Chirag Paswan appeals to the youth, Dalit voters, and those seeking a generational change. Chirag has been trying to project himself as the natural successor of NDA leadership in the state, often invoking his father, late Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy.

Key Challenges:

• Nitish’s alliance with BJP has seen turbulent moments, especially post-2020 and during the “return and exit” episodes.

• Chirag’s attempt to run solo in 2020 backfired but helped him gain individual identity.

Now, with 2025 around the corner, both leaders are staking claim to the CM face, creating friction within the NDA.

2. The CM Face Dilemma in NDA: No Consensus Yet

One of the biggest strategic gaps in the NDA’s Bihar campaign is the lack of clarity on the Chief Ministerial candidate. While BJP has been careful not to officially endorse anyone yet, backdoor lobbying and factional alignments indicate a deep divide.

Inside BJP:

• A section still prefers Nitish Kumar, citing stability and familiarity.

• Another section, particularly younger leaders and MLAs from BJP, are sympathetic to Chirag Paswan, seeing him as a dynamic and aggressive campaigner.

Political Ramifications:

• Prolonged indecision may confuse voters and weaken the NDA’s messaging.

• It may lead to vote-splitting, especially in urban, Dalit, and youth-centric constituencies.

3. BJP’s Internal Power Dynamics: Leaders vs Cadre

The BJP in Bihar is also grappling with internal power centers, which could affect its performance. Since the exit of leaders like Sushil Modi from the state political spotlight, there’s been a vacuum in leadership and ideological clarity.

Power Factions:

• Organizational Leaders: Rooted in RSS ideology, focus on grassroots mobilization.

• Electoral Leaders: MLAs and MPs pushing for more assertive control and ministerial roles.

• National vs State Conflict: Delhi leadership’s tight control has frustrated local BJP leaders who want autonomy in candidate selection.

Impact on Strategy:

• Weak booth-level mobilization due to lack of coordination.

• Risk of rebellion or silent sabotage if certain leaders are sidelined.

4. The Opposition Factor: Mahagathbandhan’s Aggressive Campaign

While the NDA is stuck in internal equations, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) is running an aggressive and targeted campaign. Tejashwi Yadav, the leader of opposition, has:

• Launched early campaigns in rural and semi-urban areas

• Focused on unemployment, inflation, and caste representation

• Projected himself as a youthful alternative to Nitish and Chirag

What This Means for NDA:

• A divided NDA will have difficulty countering a focused and unified Mahagathbandhan.

• If BJP, JD(U), and LJP factions don’t resolve their leadership conflict, it may offer a clear edge to the opposition.

Electoral Arithmetic: Caste, Coalition, and Candidates

Caste Calculus:

• Nitish Kumar retains support among Kurmi and EBC communities

• Chirag Paswan appeals to Dalits and young SC voters

• BJP depends on upper caste consolidation and urban Hindu vote

Without synergy, these caste votes may not convert into seats.

Coalition Strategy:

• JD(U) wants more say in seat-sharing.

• Chirag’s LJP wants at least 50 seats, but BJP is hesitant.

• BJP’s own ambitions clash with its allies, complicating ticket distribution.

Public Sentiment: Confusion and Fatigue

Voters in Bihar are reportedly frustrated by the lack of clarity and infighting within the NDA. While development remains a core concern, the personal ambitions of leaders seem to overshadow the issues of the people.

A resident from Muzaffarpur said:

“We want jobs, better roads, and healthcare. But what we see is only power struggle and blame games.”

National Perspective: Why Bihar Matters in 2025

Bihar’s results will not just decide a state government; they’ll be a litmus test for the NDA’s national cohesion ahead of the 2029 General Elections. A poor performance here could:

• Weaken BJP’s grip in the Hindi heartland

• Upset alliances in other key states like UP and Jharkhand

• Strengthen opposition’s claim for national unity

As Bihar enters the critical phase of its electoral cycle, the lack of coordination, competing egos, and unclear leadership within the NDA pose a serious threat to its electoral ambitions.

Unless Chirag Paswan, Nitish Kumar, and BJP leadership find a cohesive formula, the path to victory will remain fragmented.

Meanwhile, a focused Mahagathbandhan is likely to capitalize on every slip. In the end, it won’t be just a battle of votes—it will be a battle of vision, unity, and credibility.

Stay tuned with KKNLive.com for ongoing, in-depth coverage of Bihar Elections 2025.