On the occasion of the 79th Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a major economic announcement from the ramparts of the Red Fort. During his 12th consecutive Independence Day speech, he hinted at sweeping Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms that could significantly lower the cost of essential items.

The Prime Minister described the planned changes as a “special Diwali gift” for the nation. He confirmed that a high-level committee has been reviewing the GST framework, in consultation with states, to prepare a set of next-generation GST reforms. According to Modi, the review process is complete, and the government is in the final stages of decision-making.

Possibility of Including Petrol and Diesel Under GST

One of the most significant possibilities discussed is bringing petrol and diesel within the ambit of GST. For years, there have been demands from various economic and industry bodies to include these fuels under the GST structure.

At present, fuel prices are subject to multiple layers of central and state taxes. Bringing petrol and diesel under GST could reduce these taxes, potentially leading to a notable fall in prices. PM Modi’s Independence Day mention of GST reforms has fuelled speculation that the government may reach an agreement with states to make this change.

Lower fuel prices would have a direct impact on transportation costs, and consequently, the prices of many goods and services. For households, this could translate into significant savings, especially in urban and semi-urban areas where fuel expenses form a large part of the monthly budget.

Eight Years of GST Implementation

PM Modi reminded the nation that the GST system was implemented on 1 July 2017. Described as the most significant indirect tax reform in independent India, GST replaced a complex web of central and state taxes with a unified tax structure.

According to Modi, the benefits of GST are now clearly visible. Tax compliance has improved, interstate trade has become smoother, and the logistics sector has seen faster transit times. He also noted that businesses, especially small and medium enterprises, have adapted well to the system over the past eight years.

However, he acknowledged that there is scope for improvement. The current focus, he explained, is on fine-tuning the system to make it simpler, more transparent, and more beneficial to consumers.

Next-Generation GST Reforms

The Prime Minister said the upcoming reforms will focus on lowering tax rates for essential commodities. The government has already completed consultations with state governments and industry representatives.

These reforms are aimed at reducing the cost of everyday goods, making life more affordable for citizens. Modi emphasised that the benefits would extend beyond households to include micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Lower tax rates on essential inputs would reduce production costs for businesses, making them more competitive.

This initiative is expected to provide a double benefit: consumers will pay less for essential items, while businesses will be able to operate more efficiently.

Impact on MSMEs and the Economy

The MSME sector, which contributes significantly to India’s GDP and employment, stands to gain considerably from the proposed GST changes. Lower input costs can improve profit margins, encourage expansion, and generate more jobs.

PM Modi highlighted that empowering MSMEs is essential for achieving the government’s broader economic vision. He pointed out that lower tax burdens would help small businesses innovate, invest in new technologies, and compete in domestic and international markets.

Economists believe that if fuel is brought under GST, MSMEs dependent on transportation will see immediate cost savings. This could improve supply chain efficiency and reduce delivery times for goods.

Public Reaction and Expectations

Following Modi’s announcement, anticipation has been building across sectors. Many consumers are hopeful that the reforms will lead to tangible price drops in essential commodities, from food staples to household goods.

Transporters and logistics companies are particularly interested in the possibility of fuel being taxed under GST, as this could significantly reduce operating expenses. Meanwhile, state governments may weigh the short-term revenue loss against long-term economic benefits.

Petrol and Diesel: The Tax Debate

Currently, petrol and diesel are taxed heavily at both the central and state levels. Central excise duties and state value-added tax (VAT) contribute a large share to fuel prices. This dual taxation often leads to wide price variations between states.

Bringing these fuels under GST would replace the multiple tax layers with a single, uniform rate. However, reaching a consensus with states remains a challenge. States rely heavily on fuel taxes for revenue, and replacing them with GST collections will require careful financial planning.

A Step Towards Inflation Control

If implemented effectively, GST reforms could also help in controlling inflation. Fuel price reductions tend to have a cascading effect on the economy. Lower transportation costs can reduce the price of food, manufactured goods, and essential services.

This could provide much-needed relief to households facing rising expenses. It may also help the Reserve Bank of India manage inflation targets more effectively, allowing for more flexible monetary policy.

The Diwali Timeline

The Prime Minister’s choice of Diwali as the timeline for the reforms is significant. As one of the most important festivals in India, Diwali is associated with high consumer spending on goods, travel, and festivities.

Announcing tax cuts ahead of the festival season could boost demand in multiple sectors, from retail to manufacturing. Businesses could see increased sales, while consumers could enjoy higher purchasing power.

Political and Economic Significance

The announcement comes at a time when global economic conditions remain uncertain. Rising fuel prices, currency fluctuations, and international trade tensions have created challenges for many economies.

By promising domestic tax reforms, the government is signalling a commitment to supporting consumers and businesses. Politically, the move could also strengthen the government’s position by demonstrating responsiveness to public concerns about inflation and cost of living.

The Path Ahead

While the announcement has generated excitement, the success of the reforms will depend on cooperation between the central and state governments. Negotiations will need to address revenue-sharing arrangements and ensure that no state suffers significant financial losses.

If consensus is achieved, the rollout of next-generation GST reforms could mark a major step in India’s economic journey. It would also reaffirm GST’s role as a dynamic, adaptable system capable of evolving with the country’s needs.

A Look Back at GST’s Journey

When GST was first introduced, it faced criticism for technical glitches, compliance burdens, and confusion over tax slabs. Over time, these issues have been addressed through technological upgrades, simplification of filing procedures, and rationalisation of tax rates.

Today, the GST Network handles millions of transactions daily, with improved efficiency and transparency. The proposed reforms aim to build on this progress by making the system even more consumer-friendly.

The Potential Challenges

Despite the optimism, there are challenges ahead. One concern is the potential short-term impact on state revenues if fuel is brought under GST at a lower tax rate. States will seek assurances of compensation or alternative revenue streams.

Another challenge is ensuring that tax reductions on essentials are passed on to consumers. The government may need to strengthen monitoring mechanisms to prevent profiteering.

PM Modi’s Independence Day address has set the stage for a potentially transformative change in India’s taxation system. If the reforms are implemented as planned, this Diwali could see lower prices for essential goods, cheaper fuel, and a stronger MSME sector.

For consumers, it could mean relief from high costs. For businesses, it could bring improved efficiency and profitability. And for the economy, it could provide the momentum needed to navigate global uncertainties with confidence.

The coming weeks will reveal whether the government and states can reach the agreements necessary to deliver this festive season’s promised “special gift” — a more affordable India for all.