In recent weeks, statements by US President Donald Trump have shifted Indian public sentiment. Growing anger towards Washington has translated into stronger support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Farmer groups and opposition leaders are warning the government against granting excessive concessions to the United States.

Trade Tensions Before Bihar Elections

The Modi government is using the escalating trade dispute with Trump as a political tool. The aim is to consolidate farmer support ahead of the crucial Bihar state elections. More than half of Bihar’s population relies on farming and related activities.

A day after Trump announced a 50% tariff on Indian exports to the US, Modi addressed supporters. He pledged to protect farmers’ interests, even at personal cost. Senior ministers indicated that India would not yield to US pressure to open agricultural and dairy markets. On Tuesday, major farmer unions met Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan to assure full backing in resisting foreign demands.

Strong Warning Against Concessions

The recent comments from Trump have pushed Indian opinion further away from Washington. At the same time, they have deepened domestic support for Modi’s stance. Opposition parties and farmer organizations are unified in cautioning the government. Their message is clear: avoid giving excessive trade concessions to the US.

According to an Economic Times report quoting GlobalData TS Lombard’s chief economist Shumita Deveshwar, India’s tone has hardened. She said American interference in the farm sector would be unacceptable to farmers. It is vital that India not be seen as bowing to foreign powers.

Modi’s Popularity Holds Steady

Bihar’s political landscape makes the farmer vote a decisive factor. The BJP is relying on its allies but knows rural backing could be critical. A C-Voter survey shows Modi’s popularity remaining strong. On August 1, 46% of respondents were “very satisfied” with him, almost unchanged from April 15’s 45.8%.

C-Voter founder Yashwant Deshmukh told Economic Times that the dispute with Trump is politically beneficial for Modi. He believes it has not created any major shift in the opposition’s favor.

National Priorities Over Trade Deals

The memory of the 2021 farmers’ protest still influences policy decisions. That year, the Modi government withdrew three controversial farm laws after a year-long movement. Now, Modi is strengthening his rural vote bank by blocking US entry into India’s agriculture and dairy sectors.

Virendra Lohan of the Chhattisgarh Youth Progressive Farmers Association praised the decision. He said Indian farmers are not only food providers but also the nation’s soul. No foreign power can control that. BJP spokesperson Nalin Kohli reinforced this view, stating national priorities are paramount. He added that any risk to farmers or agriculture is unacceptable.

Calls for Boycott of US Brands

The Swadeshi Jagran Manch has urged the public to boycott American goods and food chains such as McDonald’s. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh linked US punitive measures to discomfort over India’s growing global influence.

The opposition, however, has taken a different line. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi accused Modi of initially being too close to Trump. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge argued that enough has not been done to shield farmers from the impact of tariffs.

Economic Concerns Over Tariffs

CitiGroup Inc. has estimated that a 50% tariff could cut India’s annual growth rate by up to 0.8 percentage points. Neelanjan Sircar, a professor at Ahmedabad University, called Trump’s stance towards India “bullying.” He noted that such actions often drive people to rally behind their leaders. However, he warned that this support could fade if economic damage deepens.

Farmers’ Unity as Political Leverage

Farmer unity has emerged as a strategic asset for the Modi government. By positioning itself as the defender of rural India, the BJP is attempting to convert economic conflict into electoral advantage. The administration is framing the dispute not just as a trade disagreement, but as a fight to protect India’s sovereignty.

This narrative resonates strongly in Bihar, where agriculture remains the backbone of the economy. The timing of the trade row allows Modi to present himself as a leader resisting foreign pressure while safeguarding local livelihoods.

Opposition Balances Criticism and Strategy

The opposition is navigating a delicate line between criticizing the government and supporting farmers. While opposing any excessive concessions to the US, parties like Congress are keen to highlight what they describe as Modi’s earlier closeness to Trump. This positioning seeks to limit Modi’s political gain from the standoff.

Public Sentiment and Future Outlook

The current mood suggests that nationalism and farmer solidarity are outweighing concerns over potential economic costs. The public appears willing to accept some slowdown in trade growth if it means preserving control over agriculture.

Still, economists warn that prolonged trade tensions could impact industries beyond farming. Sectors linked to exports may face reduced orders, while investment confidence could weaken. If the tariff impact becomes visible in jobs and prices, the political calculus might shift.

For now, Modi and the BJP are presenting the dispute as a matter of national pride. With Bihar elections approaching, the issue is likely to remain a key talking point in campaign rallies and political messaging.