KKN Gurugram Desk | In the evolving landscape of Uttar Pradesh politics, a new force is rising that’s disrupting the traditional equations of power. Chandrashekhar Azad, the sitting MP from Nagina and leader of the Azad Samaj Party (ASP), is emerging as a key Dalit leader whose rising influence is proving to be a significant challenge for both Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

While Chandrashekhar has long been seen as a Dalit rights activist, his latest political moves—particularly his outreach to the Muslim community—indicate that he’s now setting his sights on the core vote bank of the SP, and in doing so, redefining the Dalit-Muslim political dynamics in the state.

Dalit Vote Shift: From Mayawati to Chandrashekhar

For decades, Dalit votes, particularly from the Jatav sub-caste, have been the bedrock of BSP’s support base, comprising nearly 21-23% of the electorate in UP. However, BSP’s electoral performance has steadily declined—culminating in zero seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

This decline has coincided with the sharp rise of Chandrashekhar, who successfully captured the Nagina Lok Sabha seat in 2024 by a margin of over 1.5 lakh votes. Significantly, BSP was pushed to fourth place in this constituency—a symbolic setback for Mayawati.

Chandrashekhar’s aggressive grassroots campaigning, personal outreach, and bold rhetoric have resonated especially with young Dalit voters, filling the vacuum left by what many perceive as BSP’s stagnant leadership.

Chandrashekhar’s Growing Base in Western UP

The Azad Samaj Party (ASP) has found fertile ground in Western Uttar Pradesh, especially in districts like Saharanpur and Bijnor, where Dalit and Muslim voters are both sizable and politically active.

What distinguishes Chandrashekhar’s strategy is his direct engagement with both communities, something that BSP failed to accomplish in recent years. Unlike Mayawati’s top-down approach through press statements and occasional rallies, Chandrashekhar has been seen on the ground, addressing local grievances and pushing for visible change.

SP’s PDA Strategy at Risk?

In 2024, Samajwadi Party won 37 seats in alliance with other opposition parties, primarily leveraging its PDA strategy (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak)—a coalition of OBCs, Dalits, and Muslims.

However, Chandrashekhar’s increasing appeal among Muslim youth threatens to undermine the SP’s Muslim vote base, which constitutes about 19% of UP’s electorate. In recent speeches, Chandrashekhar has urged Muslims to unite and avoid being “betrayed repeatedly,” in what many see as a veiled attack on SP’s leadership.

While such statements remain politically loaded, they reflect a calculated strategy to disrupt the SP’s traditional strongholds.

Unsuccessful Alliances and Growing Rift with SP

Despite past efforts, a formal alliance between SP and ASP has not materialized. In 2022 and again in 2024, Chandrashekhar claimed that Akhilesh Yadav declined to include him in pre-poll coalitions.

The result? Azad has publicly accused SP of using Dalits merely as a vote bank—a criticism that resonates with many first-time Dalit voters disillusioned with old-guard parties.

Chandrashekhar’s decision to contest all 403 assembly seats in the upcoming 2027 UP Assembly elections could further fracture opposition unity, creating a three-cornered contest in several key constituencies.

Why Akhilesh Yadav Should Be Concerned

Akhilesh Yadav has tried to reach out to Dalits through initiatives like the Baba Saheb Vahini, and by fielding Dalit candidates from general constituencies. However, his efforts appear increasingly overshadowed by Chandrashekhar’s assertive, youthful, and grassroots-focused politics.

If ASP continues to win the confidence of both Dalits and Muslims, it could lead to significant vote division in seats where SP previously enjoyed safe margins.

Impact on Mayawati and BSP’s Future

Perhaps the biggest political casualty of Chandrashekhar’s rise is Mayawati. Once seen as the unchallenged face of Dalit politics, she now finds herself pushed to the margins. BSP’s vote share has plummeted from 30.43% in 2007 to just 9.39% in 2024, signaling a crisis of relevance.

Mayawati’s strategy of fielding Muslim candidates to revive the Dalit-Muslim coalition has not yielded success. In contrast, Chandrashekhar’s successful combination of Dalit and Muslim votes in Nagina offers a blueprint that Mayawati failed to implement.

Social Media Buzz and Ground Sentiment

Chandrashekhar Azad’s appeal among youth and digital natives is evident from the increasing mentions on X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram, where many Muslim influencers and Dalit rights groups have begun aligning with his narrative.

Hashtags like #DalitMuslimUnity, #ChandrashekharForUP, and #NewFaceOfAmbedkaritePolitics have trended frequently post-2024 elections.

This reflects a larger trend: traditional caste-politics-based parties are losing narrative control to more activist-driven, digital-savvy leaders.

What This Means for BJP

Ironically, the fragmentation of the Dalit-Muslim vote could be a strategic advantage for the BJP. The ruling party has already made inroads among non-Jatav Dalits, such as the Valmikis and Khatiks, and even chipped away at Jatav support in some districts.

If Chandrashekhar successfully draws Muslim votes away from SP and divides Dalit support with BSP, the opposition vote split could benefit the BJP, especially in Western and Central UP.

However, BJP, too, must be cautious. A well-organized ASP wave, especially in urban slums and semi-rural belts, could eat into the saffron party’s margins, particularly where local caste alliances are fragile.

2027 UP Assembly Elections: A Three-Way Contest?

With Chandrashekhar Azad planning to contest all 403 seats in the next state elections, UP may be headed toward a three-way political battle—ASP, SP, and BJP.

The real question is: Can Chandrashekhar convert social media popularity into electoral performance across the state? Or will his influence remain restricted to select districts like Saharanpur, Bijnor, and Nagina?

If he succeeds, UP’s political landscape could undergo a transformation not seen since Mayawati’s rise in the early 2000s.

The rise of Chandrashekhar Azad signifies more than just the emergence of a new leader—it reflects a shift in political discourse, generational change, and the decline of older identity-based vote banks.

As Mayawati fades from the spotlight and Akhilesh grapples with a fragmented opposition space, Chandrashekhar’s ASP may very well become the X-factor in UP’s 2027 political equation.

Whether that results in a realignment of Dalit-Muslim unity or a deeper splintering of opposition votes, one thing is clear: Uttar Pradesh’s political future will not be business as usual.