KKN Gurugram Desk | With less than a year left for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, political momentum is gaining pace, and so is public opinion. According to the latest India Today-CVoter Survey, Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the most preferred candidate for the post of Chief Minister of Bihar, overtaking long-time incumbent Nitish Kumar, in a development that has surprised many political observers.

The survey results suggest a significant shift in voter sentiment and offer early insights into the 2025 election battleground, with leadership preference becoming a key narrative.

Key Highlights – Bihar CM Popularity Poll 2025

• Tejashwi Yadav leads the popularity chart with a notable margin.

• Nitish Kumar, despite being the sitting CM, is trailing behind.

• Other leaders, including BJP’s potential candidates, are significantly behind in voter preference.

• The survey was conducted by CVoter in partnership with India Today, with responses from across all 38 districts of Bihar.

 Tejashwi Yadav: The Rising Challenger

According to the survey, RJD leader and current Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav enjoys strong youth support, especially in urban and semi-urban constituencies. His popularity is rooted in:

• Welfare-focused promises

• Job creation agenda

• Vocal stance against BJP-JDU policies

• His consistent branding as a pro-youth, pro-development leader

CVoter Stats Snapshot:

• Tejashwi Yadav (RJD): ~47% preference

• Nitish Kumar (JDU): ~39% preference

• Others (BJP, INC, LJP, HAM, AIMIM combined): ~14% combined

Note: Figures are approximations based on projected weighted averages.

 Nitish Kumar: Declining But Still Strong

Despite slipping to second place in the popularity rankings, Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s veteran politician and multiple-term Chief Minister, still retains a significant support base, particularly in:

• Rural areas

• Older voter demographics

• Women voters who favor his past work in healthcare, safety, and education

Reasons Behind the Slide:

• Fatigue with long incumbency

• Shifting youth sentiment

• Alliance turbulence (JDU’s switches between BJP and RJD-led coalitions)

• Limited success in creating employment

Still, his JDU vote bank remains loyal, and experts caution against writing him off before the campaign begins in full swing.

 Other Contenders Trail Behind

The CVoter survey also included opinions on potential CM faces from other parties, but none could gather significant traction.

BJP Leadership Scenario:

• No clear CM face has been projected by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

• Leaders like Samrat Choudhary, Nityanand Rai, and Giriraj Singh received limited public approval (under 10% each).

• The absence of a charismatic mass leader may hinder BJP’s stand-alone bid for CM.

Congress & Others:

• Congress continues to struggle in visibility despite being a part of the INDIA alliance.

• Smaller parties like LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM, AIMIM haven’t emerged as serious claimants for the top post.

Public Sentiment: What Issues Matter Most to Voters?

In addition to leadership preference, the survey sought voter opinion on key issues affecting the 2025 elections in Bihar.

Top 5 Issues Identified by Respondents:

1. Unemployment – Cited by over 40% of respondents as the biggest concern

2. Inflation and Price Rise – Fuel, food, and essentials have become costlier

3. Healthcare – Post-pandemic health infrastructure remains a public worry

4. Education Quality – Especially in rural and government institutions

5. Law and Order – Women’s safety and petty crime remain concerns

This further explains Tejashwi Yadav’s rising appeal, as his campaign rhetoric frequently centers around job creation, youth empowerment, and governance reforms.

 Caste Dynamics and Regional Breakup

Bihar’s electoral politics is deeply influenced by caste alliances and regional loyalties. The survey also delved into caste-based CM preferences:

Caste-wise Preferences:

• Yadav, Muslim voters: Overwhelming support for Tejashwi Yadav

• Upper Castes (Brahmin, Rajput): Leaning towards BJP or Nitish Kumar

• Dalits and EBCs: Divided; significant swing sections yet to finalize preference

• Women voters: Still show significant trust in Nitish Kumar’s social schemes

Region-wise Insight:

• North Bihar: Tejashwi leads in districts like Muzaffarpur, Darbhanga, Madhubani

• South Bihar: Competitive, with Nitish holding ground in Nalanda, Patna, and Gaya

• Seemanchal: Communal polarization and AIMIM presence might split votes

• Magadh & Bhojpur belts: Mixed responses, potential swing zones

Methodology of the CVoter Survey

• Sample Size: Over 15,000 respondents

• Timeframe: May 2025

• Coverage: All 38 districts of Bihar

• Margin of Error: ±3%

The data is weighted demographically to represent Bihar’s population and was conducted using a mix of telephonic interviews and field-based sampling.

Previous Election Recap: What Happened in 2020?

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections, the NDA (led by BJP-JDU) had narrowly defeated the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan:

• NDA: 125 seats

• Mahagathbandhan: 110 seats

• Majority mark: 122

But post-election realignments, including Nitish Kumar’s exit from NDA and return to the RJD alliance, have reshaped the 2025 electoral landscape.

 What the Survey Means for Election Strategy

For Tejashwi Yadav:

• Maintain focus on youth-centric messaging

• Convert popularity into votes through organizational groundwork

• Avoid missteps in alliance politics

For Nitish Kumar:

• Reinforce governance legacy

• Clarify political positioning and end flip-flop perceptions

• Engage rural and senior voters actively

For BJP:

• Declare a strong, charismatic CM candidate soon

• Target swing constituencies and urban clusters

• Address anti-incumbency in alliance narrative

The India Today-CVoter Survey provides a critical glimpse into the voter mood of Bihar ahead of the 2025 elections. With Tejashwi Yadav currently leading the popularity race, the contest is increasingly centered around two distinct leadership models:

• Tejashwi’s promise of change, youth, and employment

• Nitish’s legacy of governance, experience, and stability

However, public sentiment can shift quickly, and the real test will lie in how parties convert popularity into performance at the ballot box.