In a surprising turn of events, Uddhav Thackeray and his cousin Raj Thackeray shared a warm embrace on stage after 20 years at the grand venue of National Sports Complex Dome in Worli. While this moment symbolized a rare family reunion, it doesn’t guarantee a political alliance between Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in the upcoming local body elections. Despite the emotional embrace, Raj Thackeray remained firm and gave no indication of forming any political alliance with Shiv Sena, leaving many to question the future of such a collaboration.

Political Reunion: A Symbolic Gesture but Not a Commitment

The gathering at the National Sports Complex was attended by many political figures, but the highlight of the event was the unexpected hug between the two cousins, which grabbed attention across political circles. However, both Uddhav and Raj made their stances clear on the potential for a future alliance.

While Raj Thackeray’s presence on the same stage as Uddhav Thackeray may have led to speculations of a political partnership, the MNS chief dismissed any such notions during his speech. He reiterated that the regional issues of Maharashtra were far more important than any personal or political rifts and that he wasn’t inclined to pursue a formal political collaboration, especially before the local body elections.

Uddhav Thackeray, who followed Raj’s speech, tried to add a political tone to the event by stating, “If we have come together, we will stay together and fight for power in Mumbai and Maharashtra.” This statement stirred the audience, but Raj Thackeray had already made his position clear, and he refrained from commenting on it further.

The Language Politics Behind the Scene

The growing speculation about a potential alliance between Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and MNS began a couple of months ago when Raj Thackeray made a significant statement during an interview with film director Mahesh Manjrekar. In that interview, Raj Thackeray stressed that small political squabbles were insignificant when compared to the greater interests of Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray, still reeling from the disastrous results of the recent Assembly elections, saw this as an opportunity to reach out to his cousin. Since then, Uddhav’s camp has been working towards creating a dialogue with Raj Thackeray.

This development gained further momentum when the Maharashtra government decided to introduce Hindi as the third language in primary schools. Raj Thackeray, a vocal opponent of such a move, expressed his sharp displeasure, which led Uddhav to align with his cousin on the issue. Soon after, Raj Thackeray had planned a protest march from Girgaon Chowpatty to Azad Maidan in Mumbai, which was later joined by Uddhav’s camp after talks between the two sides, led by Sanjay Raut, Uddhav’s key lieutenant.

The protest was aimed at opposing the Maharashtra government’s decision, and once the government backtracked and revoked the order, both Raj and Uddhav celebrated the success with a victory rally. However, Raj made it clear that this rally was not about any political party but was rather a celebration of Marathi pride and Maharashtra’s identity.

The Roadblocks to a Political Alliance

Despite the symbolic gestures and shared sentiments between Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray, the reality of an alliance between Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and MNS in the upcoming Mumbai Municipal Corporation elections or any other local body elections is still uncertain. Several obstacles exist, primarily due to both leaders’ firm political stances and the intricacies of seat-sharing.

In addition to the stubborn attitudes of both factions, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the existing political alliance in Maharashtra, may also be a significant roadblock. The MVA, which includes Shiv Sena (Uddhav), Congress, and NCP, has proven to be a delicate coalition. Introducing new parties into this mix, especially when Congress is a crucial partner in the alliance, may cause further complications.

Congress’ Reluctance Towards a New Alliance

A key player in this dynamic is Congress, which has historically maintained a delicate balance in Maharashtra’s politics. Congress leaders were notably absent from the event, signaling their reluctance to align with the Thackeray cousins in any future coalition. Congress is cautious of losing its non-Marathi-speaking vote bank in cities like Mumbai and Thane, a demographic that has historically supported Congress over regional parties like Shiv Sena and MNS.

Congress’ hesitation to join a political alliance with MNS and Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) could be based on the fear of alienating Mumbai’s diverse electorate, which includes a significant number of non-Marathi voters. This complexity makes the idea of a political merger between Shiv Sena and MNS even more challenging.

Seat Sharing: A Complex Issue

One of the critical challenges for both parties in a potential alliance is the issue of seat-sharing. Raj Thackeray and Uddhav Thackeray both have stronghold constituencies in Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, and Pune, which are predominantly Marathi-speaking areas. Dividing seats between Shiv Sena and MNS without causing friction would be a monumental task. Both factions are unlikely to yield power easily in these regions where they both have deep-rooted support.

Additionally, while Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena has a strong base in Mumbai and other urban centers, Raj Thackeray’s MNS holds significant sway in Marathi-dominated areas, making a division of seats that satisfies both factions difficult to negotiate.

While the family reunion between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray was an emotional moment, it does not necessarily signal the formation of a political alliance between Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and MNS. The upcoming Mumbai Municipal Corporation elections and other local elections will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of their political paths.

The Thackeray cousins may have shared a moment of unity, but their individual political ambitions and the complexities of seat-sharing and party dynamics in Maharashtra make an alliance seem unlikely at this point. The presence of Congress as a key ally in the MVA further complicates the situation, with the national party wary of any changes to the status quo.

While the gesture was significant, it’s important to remember that in politics, personal ties often take a backseat to strategic calculations. The political landscape in Maharashtra continues to evolve, and only time will tell whether Uddhav and Raj Thackeray can bridge their differences for a joint political future.