KKN Gurugram Desk | Gold prices held firm on Friday, staying close to record levels as investors awaited the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The data is expected to provide key insights into the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. If job growth slows more than expected, gold prices could surge past $2,882. However, stronger employment figures may push gold toward key support at $2,807.
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Gold Prices Near All-Time Highs
Gold (XAU/USD) edged higher, reaching $2,867.04 at 12:04 GMT, a gain of 0.39%. The metal remains in a strong uptrend, with traders closely watching price movements around the previous peak of $2,882. If bullish momentum continues, gold could set new records. However, any failure to sustain gains may trigger selling pressure, leading to a potential decline toward $2,807 or even $2,772.
Despite minor fluctuations, the broader sentiment suggests investors are adopting a “buy the dip” approach. This indicates strong confidence in gold’s long-term strength, reducing the chances of a sharp reversal. However, market direction will largely depend on the upcoming jobs report.
US Jobs Report: Key Factor for Gold’s Next Move
The U.S. NFP report is expected to show job growth of 169,000, a significant slowdown from December’s 256,000. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.1%, while wage growth is forecast to ease, with a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual rise of 3.7%.
A weaker-than-expected labor market report could raise expectations of early Fed rate cuts, boosting gold prices. If job numbers show a strong employment market, the Fed may maintain a cautious stance, leading to higher bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, which could weigh on gold prices.
US Tariffs on China Drive Gold’s Safe-Haven Demand
The U.S. government’s new tariff policies on China have added to market uncertainty, strengthening gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors are closely watching the impact of these trade tensions on global economic growth.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged that while economic resilience allows for potential rate cuts, ongoing trade risks could force the Fed to act sooner. Any signs of economic slowdown, combined with trade-related instability, could further fuel demand for gold.
Physical Gold Demand Weak in India and China
Despite gold’s strong performance in global markets, demand in key consumer regions like India and China remains weak. High prices have reduced buying interest among retail consumers.
The Perth Mint reported its lowest gold sales in ten months for January. Silver sales also dropped sharply, declining by 61% from the previous month. This suggests that while investment demand for gold remains strong, traditional buyers in the jewelry and retail sectors are holding back due to record-high prices.
Market Outlook: Will Gold Break New Records?
Gold’s next move will be influenced by the U.S. jobs data. If the report reveals slower job growth or rising unemployment, traders may anticipate earlier Fed rate cuts, pushing gold prices above $2,882. This could lead to new all-time highs as investors seek safe-haven assets.
However, if the labor market remains strong and wage growth stays steady, the Fed could delay rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. In this scenario, gold may face resistance, with prices potentially falling toward support levels at $2,807 or $2,772.
Gold prices remain in an upward trend, supported by economic uncertainty and Fed policy expectations. The upcoming U.S. jobs report will be a critical factor in determining gold’s next direction. If data suggests a slowing economy, bullish momentum may accelerate. On the other hand, strong job numbers could limit gold’s upside potential. Traders and investors should closely monitor economic indicators to assess market trends in the coming weeks.
