A recent IANS-Matrize opinion poll indicates that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on track to secure a significant victory in Bihar, but Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) may face a disappointing outcome despite contesting a large number of seats. The survey reveals that while the NDA is projected to win a substantial number of seats, Chirag Paswan’s party is predicted to secure only a few seats, signaling a sharp decline in its performance since the last election.

NDA’s Projected Victory and Seat Forecast

According to the opinion poll, the NDA is set to win between 153 and 164 seats in the upcoming Bihar elections. This prediction points to a commanding victory for the alliance, which includes key players like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal-United (JD-U). The results indicate that the NDA will likely retain its hold over the state, despite challenges from the opposition. With elections set to begin on Thursday, the survey suggests that the NDA is in a strong position to return to power.

The opposition, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Tejashwi Yadav, is expected to secure between 76 and 87 seats. While this shows a significant number of seats, it still places the RJD and its allies far behind the NDA in the race for power. The opposition is expected to face challenges in rallying enough support to pose a serious threat to the ruling alliance.

Chirag Paswan’s LJP Faces a Major Setback

One of the most striking revelations from the poll is the performance of Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which had been expected to perform well, particularly with its strong presence in the election campaign. Despite being allocated 29 assembly seats as part of the NDA’s seat-sharing arrangement, the LJP is predicted to win only 4 to 5 seats. This projection represents a significant setback for Paswan’s party, marking a stark contrast to its performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the party had hoped to leverage its popularity for a stronger performance in the state assembly.

Chirag Paswan, who has often referred to himself as “Narendra Modi’s Hanuman,” had anticipated a better outcome given his party’s seat allocation and presence in the campaign. However, the survey suggests that despite the high-profile campaign, the LJP is struggling to translate its visibility into electoral support. With such a low strike rate, the LJP’s performance is likely to be seen as a disappointment for both the party and its leader.

HAM (S) Surprises with Strong Performance

In contrast to LJP’s setback, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), led by former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, is expected to outperform expectations. The survey predicts that HAM, which is contesting six seats in the election, is likely to win between 4 and 5 of those seats. This result represents a strike rate of nearly 90%, highlighting the strong support for Manjhi’s party in the state. HAM’s success is a notable development, as the party has been able to generate considerable support despite contesting only a small number of seats.

Congress Faces Struggles Despite Large Seat Share

The survey also sheds light on potential challenges within the opposition Grand Alliance, specifically focusing on the Congress party. Despite fielding candidates in 62 constituencies, the Congress is predicted to secure only 7 to 9 seats in this election. This underperformance is likely to cause concern within the Grand Alliance, especially as the Congress had hoped to play a significant role in challenging the NDA’s dominance in Bihar.

The findings of the poll point to a potential miscalculation by the RJD, which has given Congress more seats than its organizational strength might justify. Analysts warn that this could mirror the 2017 electoral misstep in Uttar Pradesh, where Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav allocated 100 seats to Congress, but the party only won 7, contributing to the Samajwadi Party’s loss. If the Congress performs poorly in Bihar, it could weaken the opposition alliance’s chances of mounting a successful challenge to the NDA.

The IANS-Matrize opinion poll highlights significant trends in the ongoing Bihar elections. While the NDA is predicted to secure a decisive victory, Chirag Paswan’s LJP faces a major setback, winning only a handful of seats despite contesting 29. The opposition, led by RJD and Tejashwi Yadav, is projected to secure a considerable number of seats, but it still lags far behind the NDA. Meanwhile, HAM’s strong performance and Congress’s struggle despite a larger seat share add further complexity to the political landscape in Bihar.

As voting begins, all eyes will be on how these predictions play out. Will the NDA secure the anticipated victory, or will the opposition manage to turn the tide? With electoral battles intensifying, the outcome of this election will shape the political future of Bihar for the coming years.