KKN Gurugram Desk | As Bihar gears up for its October–November 2025 assembly elections, growing friction within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has come into sharp focus. At the center of this intra-alliance tension is Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan, whose demand for 70 seats has unsettled allies. Sources indicate he is unwilling to accept anything less than 35 seats, triggering a fresh round of political bargaining.

The NDA Seat-Sharing Equation: A Complex Puzzle

The Bihar NDA coalition currently includes:

• Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

• Janata Dal (United) under Nitish Kumar

• Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP(RV)

• Smaller partners like Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM)

Recent calculations have aligned seat shares with 2024 Lok Sabha allocations: JD(U) ~102 seats, BJP ~101 seats, with ~40 seats divided among LJP(RV), HAM, and RLM

Chirag Paswan’s High-Stake Demand for 70 Seats

In a bold political move, LJP(RV) leader Chirag Paswan has announced plans to contest all 243 assembly constituencies . Now, he is pushing the NDA for a hefty 70-seat share, significantly higher than the 5–28 seats allocated to LJP in previous deals .

BJP insiders see this as a strategic bargaining tactic, reinforcing Paswan’s political weight within Bihar’s political landscape. His public messaging of “Bihar First, Bihari First” resonates with his expanded ambitions .

 Friction with NDA Allies: BJP, JD(U), HAM at Odds

Paswan’s demand has unsettled the BJP-JD(U) leadership, which prioritizes stability and maintains that Nitish Kumar and BJP should receive more seats. JD(U)’s expected allotment of 102–103 seats already overshadows BJP’s 101–102 .

Meanwhile, leaders from smaller NDA allies like HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi have publicly opposed giving Paswan too large a share. Manjhi stated he would “speak up” if Paswan’s demand disrupted seat balance and reiterated support for PM Modi and CM Kumar .

This raises serious questions about NDA cohesion as Bihar edges closer to polls.

 The LJP(RV)’s Electoral Leverage

Chirag Paswan’s clout stems from:

• His LJP’s five Lok Sabha seats in 2024, showing growing grassroots influence .

• The revival of his “Bihar First, Bihari First” campaign, emphasizing youth development and economic empowerment .

• Strategic positioning among Dalit voters, due to Paswan’s personal and party heritage.

LJP(RV) has indicated it will contest all 243 seats, though only claiming a decisive portion of that tally. This bold posturing increases their bargaining leverage .

 BJP’s Perspective: Tactical Acceptance, Strategic Caution

While BJP sees the LJP’s seat demand as a strategic maneuver, they remain cautious. According to BJP officials, Paswan’s expanded ambitions aren’t taken as contention but a tactical lever to claim a larger share

Yet the BJP also recalls the 2020 election experience, when LJP contested against JD(U) and contributed to votes splitting, which forced BJP to compensate . Hence, BJP is inclined to strike a delicate seat-sharing balance — satisfying LJP without alienating JD(U).

 Political Dynamics: Risk and Rewards

 Rewards:

• Consolidates Dalit and youth votes behind NDA

• Presents a strong, united “Bihar-first” offensive

• Deters the Mahagathbandhan opposition, led by RJD and Congress

Risks:

• Potential destabilization of NDA if seat demands are unmet

• Possibility of friction spilling into public domain, undermining alliance unity

• Alienation of BJP and JD(U) grassroot cadres disgruntled by large LJP shares

 Ongoing Negotiations: The NDA’s Internal Battle

NDA partners are currently:

• Holding state and central-level coordination meetings

• Armed with internal demographic and caste surveys of each constituency

• Focused on Delhi-level convenings set to finalize the seat-sharing formula

Final decisions will be meticulously weighed, integrating caste math, performance metrics, and local bargaining clout.

 Compared: INDIA Alliance also strategizing

Contrastingly, the INDIA bloc alliance of RJD, Congress, CPI(M-L), CPI, and VIP is meeting on June 15 to finalize its seat-sharing plan . While NDA’s tensions simmer, the opposition bloc is moving ahead cohesively—a fact that NjDA analysts find concerning.

This parallel advance makes a stable and timely seat-sharing deal even more critical for NDA cohesion and campaign preparedness.

Observers note that:

• A 50–60 seat allocation might pacify the LJP without upsetting partners

• Failing to make concessions could provoke LJP’s public dissent or defections

• Rush in seat allocation without proper engagement risks opening cracks at grassroots

The next two weeks will be decisive, with Delhi meetings expected to resolve the equilibrium between alliances and ambition.